1.19.22. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2022. For each economy, we estimate a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model using data both before March 2020 and after June 2020, with the extreme observations between March and June 2020 dropped to eliminate their impacts on the model estimates.
Noah Williams
Fundamental State Tax Reform: Eliminating the Income Tax in Wisconsin
12.16.21. Noah Williams. The state of Wisconsin has the oldest continuously operating state income tax in the United States. In this report I develop and analyze a plan to dramatically change that history.
The Wisconsin State Sales Tax
11.11.21. Noah Williams. In addition to income taxes, which were discussed in my previous brief, the other main source of general purpose revenue for the state of Wisconsin is the general sales tax.
The Wisconsin State Income Tax
11.4.21. Noah Williams. The state of Wisconsin has the oldest continuously operating state income tax in the United States. In this brief I discuss some of the history and background of the state income tax, as well as the current distribution of taxes and effective tax rates.
The Evolution and Impacts of the State Corporate Tax Structure: 2011-2020
9.8.21. Junjie Guo, Noah Williams, Zhuoer Ren, and Qi Yang. We study how the state corporate tax rate and 15 measures of the state corporate tax base have been evolving since 1980, with a particular focus on changes in the last decade.
More Early Evidence on the End of Expanded Federal Unemployment Benefits
8.20.21. Noah Williams. Beginning in May a number of states announced that they would be ending participation in the federal enhanced and expanded unemployment benefit programs instituted during the COVID-19
pandemic.
Early Evidence on the End of Expanded Federal Unemployment Benefits
7.30.21. Noah Williams. Beginning in May a number of states announced that they would be ending participation in the federal enhanced and expanded unemployment benefit programs instituted during the COVID-19 pandemic. In total, 26 states decided to end their participation in these programs before their scheduled expiration in September. Due to limited data, this report focuses on the first four states that ended benefits on June 12, and the additional eight states that ended them on June 19.
Employment Effects of Ending of Expanded Federal Unemployment Benefits
7.28.21. Noah Williams. Beginning in May a number of states announced that they would be ending participation in the federal enhanced and expanded unemployment insurance (UI) benefit programs instituted during
the COVID-19 pandemic. In total, 26 states decided to end participation before the scheduled expiration in September.
Current Private Indicators on the Wisconsin Economy: Small Business Employment and Consumer Spending
7.22.21. Noah Williams. I use two private data sources to analyze the labor market and consumer spending in the state of Wisconsin. I first analyze labor market data from a sample of mostly small businesses. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, by mid-April 2020 48% of these businesses were closed, with employment down 59%.
Labor Markets in the US and Wisconsin: Current State and Long-run Trends
6.25.21. Noah Williams. I survey the current state of labor markets in the United States and the state of Wisconsin. In recent weeks the labor market has become a primary focus of economic and policy discussions, with job openings soaring to record levels while employment gains have slowed.