Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2022

1.19.22. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2022. For each economy, we estimate a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model using data both before March 2020 and after June 2020, with the extreme observations between March and June 2020 dropped to eliminate their impacts on the model estimates.

Current Private Indicators on the Wisconsin Economy: Small Business Employment and Consumer Spending

7.22.21. Noah Williams. I use two private data sources to analyze the labor market and consumer spending in the state of Wisconsin. I first analyze labor market data from a sample of mostly small businesses. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, by mid-April 2020 48% of these businesses were closed, with employment down 59%.