Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2022

1.19.22. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2022. For each economy, we estimate a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model using data both before March 2020 and after June 2020, with the extreme observations between March and June 2020 dropped to eliminate their impacts on the model estimates.

The Impact of Increased Unemployment Benefits During the COVID-19 Pandemic

4.1.21. Junjie Guo, Noah Williams, Arwa Alalwani, Zhi Jiang, Jiashun Pang, Stefan Smutny, Linhua Zeng. We analyze the effects of the 2020 CARES Act implementation on the local labor market. We use observations from the Homebase Database which provides granular labor market data from a sample of small businesses across the United States.

The Economic Impact of the Wisconsin Supreme Court Ruling Invalidating the State’s Safer at Home Order

7.3.20. Junjie Guo. In a 4-3 ruling, the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state’s Safer at Home order on May 13, 2020, allowing most non-essential businesses to open immediately in most locations. Using several real-time measures, I find broad evidence suggesting a positive impact of the Supreme Court decision on economic activity.

The Impact of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders: Estimating the Heterogeneous Effects Using GPS Data from Mobile Devices

4.29.20. Junjie Guo. In response to the spread of COVID-19, most states in the U.S. have ordered nonessential businesses to close and residents to not leave home unless necessary. This paper estimates the impact of these stay-at-home orders on the mobility of Americans using GPS data from mobile devices