2.10.22. Junjie Guo. This data brief reports the current status and the evolution of job openings and labor market tightness in the U.S. and Wisconsin.
Junjie Guo
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2022
1.19.22. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2022. For each economy, we estimate a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model using data both before March 2020 and after June 2020, with the extreme observations between March and June 2020 dropped to eliminate their impacts on the model estimates.
The Evolution and Impacts of the State Corporate Tax Structure: 2011-2020
9.8.21. Junjie Guo, Noah Williams, Zhuoer Ren, and Qi Yang. We study how the state corporate tax rate and 15 measures of the state corporate tax base have been evolving since 1980, with a particular focus on changes in the last decade.
Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin
6.22.21. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. As an amendment to our initial report on June 17 titled “Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin”, we evaluate the potential impacts of cutting the third income tax rate from 6.27% to 5.3%, a proposal approved by the Joint Committee on Finance on the same day.
The Impact of Increased Unemployment Benefits During the COVID-19 Pandemic
4.1.21. Junjie Guo, Noah Williams, Arwa Alalwani, Zhi Jiang, Jiashun Pang, Stefan Smutny, Linhua Zeng. We analyze the effects of the 2020 CARES Act implementation on the local labor market. We use observations from the Homebase Database which provides granular labor market data from a sample of small businesses across the United States.
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2021
1.19.21. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2021. The economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made forecasting difficult. To deal with the volatility caused by the shutdowns and reopening requires modifying standard procedures.
The Economic Impact of the Wisconsin Supreme Court Ruling Invalidating the State’s Safer at Home Order
7.3.20. Junjie Guo. In a 4-3 ruling, the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state’s Safer at Home order on May 13, 2020, allowing most non-essential businesses to open immediately in most locations. Using several real-time measures, I find broad evidence suggesting a positive impact of the Supreme Court decision on economic activity.
The Impact of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders: Estimating the Heterogeneous Effects Using GPS Data from Mobile Devices
4.29.20. Junjie Guo. In response to the spread of COVID-19, most states in the U.S. have ordered nonessential businesses to close and residents to not leave home unless necessary. This paper estimates the impact of these stay-at-home orders on the mobility of Americans using GPS data from mobile devices
The Geographic Distribution of Workers Most At Risk Economically When Ordered To Stay At Home
3.26.20. Junjie Guo. On March 24, 2020, at the direction of Governor Tony Evers, Wisconsin issued a “safer at home” order requiring residents not to leave their home unless necessary. Similar orders to lock down the economy in an attempt to limit the spread of COVID-19 have been issued elsewhere.
COVID-19, Industry Mix and the Growth of Initial UI Claims across States
3.23.20. Junjie Guo. In its latest news release on unemployment insurance (UI) weekly claims, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) reported that, relative to the prior week, the number of initial claims increased significantly by 70,000 in the week ending on March 14, 2020.