2.21.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. We evaluate the effects of the expansion in the standard deduction proposed recently in AB 910 by Wisconsin lawmakers. We find it would reduce taxes for about 2 million taxpayers and reduce state tax revenue by about $200 million, so the reduction per affected taxpayer is about $100.
Junjie Guo
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2020
1.17.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2020. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin. Our forecasts suggest that the long economic recovery will continue in 2020.
Jobs, Skills and the Prison-to-Work Transition
8.19. Junjie Guo, Ananth Seshadri and Christopher Taber. Using county-level data on prison admission, prison release, parole supervision and employment opportunities by industry and skill requirements, we estimate the effect of the number of low-skill new hires by industry at the time of prison release on recidivism in Wisconsin.
Potential Medicaid Expansion in Wisconsin: New Estimates of costs and Benefits for Health Care Providers and the Privately Insured
6.25.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. We provide new evidence on the potential impact of Medicaid expansion on health care providers and the privately insured in Wisconsin.
Marginal Tax Rates and Individual Income Tax Reforms in Wisconsin
5.10.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. Wisconsin has a progressive individual state income tax system, which features increasing marginal tax rates (the tax rate on the last dollar earned) as income rises. However other aspects of the tax code, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC) and standard deduction, change the effective marginal tax rate that taxpayers face.
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2019
11.8.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2019. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression (MF-VAR) model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin.
The Impact of Income Tax Reductions in Wisconsin
12.19.18. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. On June 30, 2013, Wisconsin Act 20, which reduced the state’s personal income tax rates for the first time since 1999 and eliminated a tax bracket, was signed into law. This reform was later followed by 2013 Wisconsin Act 145, which further reduced the marginal tax rate for the bottom income bracket.
Business Formation in Wisconsin During and After the Great Recession
2.28.18. Junjie Guo. New businesses are an increasingly important component of growth in output, employment, and productivity. We analyze new data from the U.S. Census Bureau to gain insight on business formations in Wisconsin before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009.
Forecasting the US and Wisconsin Economies in 2018
1.8.18. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2018. We use versions of mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) models that have been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin.