Forecast

1.19.22. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2022. For each economy, we estimate a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model using data both before March 2020 and after June 2020, with the extreme observations between March and June 2020 dropped to eliminate their impacts on the model estimates.

1.19.21. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2021. The economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made forecasting difficult. To deal with the volatility caused by the shutdowns and reopening requires modifying standard procedures.

1.17.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2020. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin. Our forecasts suggest that the long economic recovery will continue in 2020.

11.8.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2019. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression (MF-VAR) model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin.

1.8.18. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2018. We use versions of mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) models that have been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin.