5.6.20. Noah Williams. The COVID-19 pandemic is leading to unprecedented social and economic disruptions around the globe. The economies in many locations have ground to a halt, as social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus have increasingly led to businesses being shut down and workers ordered to shelter in place.
Noah Williams
Consumer Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic
4.23.20. Noah Williams. As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the United States, consumers have changed their spending habits dramatically. Initially, the changes began with people canceling inessential travel, limiting attendance at large gatherings, generally limiting social exposure, and moving from purchases in-store to online.
Unemployment Benefits under the Federal COVID-19 Relief Package
3.27.20. Noah Williams. As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the United States, it has led to mass shutdowns of businesses with many states being placed under shelter-in-place orders.
Forecasting Initial Unemployment Claims using Google Searches
3.23.20. Noah Williams. In the wake of the unprecedented economic disruptions caused by COVID-19, there is an increased need for high-frequency data. The economies in many locations around the globe have ground to a standstill, as businesses have shut down and workers have been ordered to shelter in place in order to try to slow the spread of the virus
The Revenue and Incentive Effects of AB 910 and Alternative Reforms in Wisconsin
2.21.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. We evaluate the effects of the expansion in the standard deduction proposed recently in AB 910 by Wisconsin lawmakers. We find it would reduce taxes for about 2 million taxpayers and reduce state tax revenue by about $200 million, so the reduction per affected taxpayer is about $100.
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2020
1.17.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2020. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin. Our forecasts suggest that the long economic recovery will continue in 2020.
Revisiting the Foxconn Agreement
12.18.19. Noah Williams. In 2017 the state of Wisconsin agreed to an unprecedented agreement, both in the scale of the project and the accompanying state subsidies, for a planned large-scale manufacturing plant by Foxconn.
Faulty Data Driving the Manufacturing “Recession” in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
12.5.19. Noah Williams. Nationwide there has been a slowdown in manufacturing employment in 2019, and the decline seemed to be especially strong in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Potential Medicaid Expansion in Wisconsin: New Estimates of costs and Benefits for Health Care Providers and the Privately Insured
6.25.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. We provide new evidence on the potential impact of Medicaid expansion on health care providers and the privately insured in Wisconsin.
Marginal Tax Rates and Individual Income Tax Reforms in Wisconsin
5.10.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. Wisconsin has a progressive individual state income tax system, which features increasing marginal tax rates (the tax rate on the last dollar earned) as income rises. However other aspects of the tax code, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC) and standard deduction, change the effective marginal tax rate that taxpayers face.