4.28.20. CROWE. Most states have imposed stay-at-home orders to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Now many are considering guidelines for reopening, which have been based solely on current health indicators. We consider both economic and health factors, accounting for differences across regions and industries.
Wisconsin Economy
Consumer Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic
4.23.20. Noah Williams. As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the United States, consumers have changed their spending habits dramatically. Initially, the changes began with people canceling inessential travel, limiting attendance at large gatherings, generally limiting social exposure, and moving from purchases in-store to online.
Air Traffic Data as a Proxy for Economic Activity in the Transportation Sector
4.8.20. Simeon Alder. The imposition of numerous social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed economic activity significantly. The impact, however, varies across industries and one of the challenges at this time is to measure the impact in a timely manner.
Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2020
1.17.20. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. This paper provides forecasts for the United States and Wisconsin economies in 2020. We use a mixed-frequency vector auto-regression model that has been previously applied to forecast the national economy, which we extend to also consider the state of Wisconsin. Our forecasts suggest that the long economic recovery will continue in 2020.
Revisiting the Foxconn Agreement
12.18.19. Noah Williams. In 2017 the state of Wisconsin agreed to an unprecedented agreement, both in the scale of the project and the accompanying state subsidies, for a planned large-scale manufacturing plant by Foxconn.
Faulty Data Driving the Manufacturing “Recession” in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
12.5.19. Noah Williams. Nationwide there has been a slowdown in manufacturing employment in 2019, and the decline seemed to be especially strong in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Uneven Effects of Chinese Tariffs
11.10.19. Kim Ruhl. As part of the escalating trade war, the Chinese government increased substantially the tariffs it levies on a range of products exported from the United States. Trade policy is applied at a national level—a good entering China from the United States is tariffed the same regardless of where it was produced within the United States.
Potential Medicaid Expansion in Wisconsin: New Estimates of costs and Benefits for Health Care Providers and the Privately Insured
6.25.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. We provide new evidence on the potential impact of Medicaid expansion on health care providers and the privately insured in Wisconsin.
Marginal Tax Rates and Individual Income Tax Reforms in Wisconsin
5.10.19. Junjie Guo and Noah Williams. Wisconsin has a progressive individual state income tax system, which features increasing marginal tax rates (the tax rate on the last dollar earned) as income rises. However other aspects of the tax code, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC) and standard deduction, change the effective marginal tax rate that taxpayers face.
Private Health Care Spending and Medicaid Expansion: Evidence for Wisconsin
4.16.19. Gwyn Pauley and Matt Wiswall. This report estimates the costs and savings of the proposed Medicaid expansion in Wisconsin.